Yes, for the moment.
This blog is being considered for inclusion in a major magazine, and while I'm waiting to hear from them I'm filing new ideas to ensure that I have material if and when that starts.
Hang in there...
December 31, 2009
December 4, 2009
Is climate change real? Part 2
Insurance companies seem to think so.
"The insurance industry, including reinsurers, who distribute risk around the sector, has traditionally been the main way to hedge against hurricanes, floods and other natural disasters.
But climate change could increase the scale and frequency of these disasters so drastically in coming years that traditional insurance might become unable to handle the burden.
Much of the risk would have to be shifted into the capital markets, where financial instruments such as catastrophe bonds and hurricane futures may boom, and increasingly exotic instruments are being developed to spread the burden further.
"In a more volatile risk landscape, as might be produced by climate change, the need for risk transfer instruments quickly increases," said John Seo, managing principal at Fermat Capital Management."
source
"The insurance industry, including reinsurers, who distribute risk around the sector, has traditionally been the main way to hedge against hurricanes, floods and other natural disasters.
But climate change could increase the scale and frequency of these disasters so drastically in coming years that traditional insurance might become unable to handle the burden.
Much of the risk would have to be shifted into the capital markets, where financial instruments such as catastrophe bonds and hurricane futures may boom, and increasingly exotic instruments are being developed to spread the burden further.
"In a more volatile risk landscape, as might be produced by climate change, the need for risk transfer instruments quickly increases," said John Seo, managing principal at Fermat Capital Management."
source
November 19, 2009
Has photovoltatic solar reached grid parity?
It looks like it has.
Daytime grid power sells for more than $.20 per KWH in Southern California. PV has to sell for less than $4 per peak watt to beat that price.
Well, First Solar has been selling it's panels for less than $2.50 per Wp - with Balance of System costs (wiring, inverter, structural supports, installation) that allows installation near the magic $4/Wp.
Now we hear that panel pricing has fallen by more than 50% in the last year:
"China Sunergy’s average selling price of $1.32 per watt was down from $3.48 a year earlier and $1.44 in the second quarter. Wafer costs declined to 87 cents per watt from 96 cents the previous quarter. "
That should allow full installations below the $4/Wp parity point, at least on the large industrial/commercial roofs for which PV works best.
Here's the source.
Daytime grid power sells for more than $.20 per KWH in Southern California. PV has to sell for less than $4 per peak watt to beat that price.
Well, First Solar has been selling it's panels for less than $2.50 per Wp - with Balance of System costs (wiring, inverter, structural supports, installation) that allows installation near the magic $4/Wp.
Now we hear that panel pricing has fallen by more than 50% in the last year:
"China Sunergy’s average selling price of $1.32 per watt was down from $3.48 a year earlier and $1.44 in the second quarter. Wafer costs declined to 87 cents per watt from 96 cents the previous quarter. "
That should allow full installations below the $4/Wp parity point, at least on the large industrial/commercial roofs for which PV works best.
Here's the source.
November 11, 2009
Have EVs and plug-in hybrids reached the tipping point?
I'd say so.
Look at the Volt, around which GM is centering it's future. Look at the dozens of vehicles coming in the next 3 years, like the Nissan Leaf http://energyfaq.blogspot.com/2009/08/how-good-is-new-ev-leaf.html . Look at the explosion of development around them:
"...here is where the dots connect and the news turns good. For the technical challenge of greening electric cars means entering a commercial landscape that mirrors the transformative industries of the 1980s and '90s: computers and software, switching and networking, consumer electronics converging with cellular technology. This landscape is full of start-ups and medium-size supplier businesses that play to American strengths: entrepreneurship, originality, comfort with the virtual. We ought to stop thinking about the auto industry as a handful of great manufacturing companies superintending large, dependent suppliers -- or, for that matter, cars as standalone objects. Rather, the electric car will be a kind of ultimate mobile device, produced in expanding networks for expanding networks; a piece of hardware manufactured by a burgeoning supplier grid and nested in an information grid interlacing the electrical grid. Building out these three networks will be more profitable, and a greater engine of economic growth, than building the cars themselves."
See: http://www.inc.com/magazine/20091101/the-connected-car.html
Look at the Volt, around which GM is centering it's future. Look at the dozens of vehicles coming in the next 3 years, like the Nissan Leaf http://energyfaq.blogspot.com/2009/08/how-good-is-new-ev-leaf.html . Look at the explosion of development around them:
"...here is where the dots connect and the news turns good. For the technical challenge of greening electric cars means entering a commercial landscape that mirrors the transformative industries of the 1980s and '90s: computers and software, switching and networking, consumer electronics converging with cellular technology. This landscape is full of start-ups and medium-size supplier businesses that play to American strengths: entrepreneurship, originality, comfort with the virtual. We ought to stop thinking about the auto industry as a handful of great manufacturing companies superintending large, dependent suppliers -- or, for that matter, cars as standalone objects. Rather, the electric car will be a kind of ultimate mobile device, produced in expanding networks for expanding networks; a piece of hardware manufactured by a burgeoning supplier grid and nested in an information grid interlacing the electrical grid. Building out these three networks will be more profitable, and a greater engine of economic growth, than building the cars themselves."
See: http://www.inc.com/magazine/20091101/the-connected-car.html
October 27, 2009
Is energy innovation slowing down?
I'd say no, judging from some new grants awarded by the Dept of Energy.
The DOE created a new section which is intended to do for energy what the DOD's DARPA did for many things, including the internet. These awards were the best of a much, much larger number of submissions. This is the first round of projects funded under ARPA-E, which is receiving $400 million under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
If even a few are successful, the effect would be dramatic.
Take a look: http://www.energy.gov/news2009/documents2009/ARPA-E_Project_Selections.pdf
The DOE created a new section which is intended to do for energy what the DOD's DARPA did for many things, including the internet. These awards were the best of a much, much larger number of submissions. This is the first round of projects funded under ARPA-E, which is receiving $400 million under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
If even a few are successful, the effect would be dramatic.
Take a look: http://www.energy.gov/news2009/documents2009/ARPA-E_Project_Selections.pdf
October 26, 2009
Which is better for energy - regulation or free markets?
I'd prefer free markets. For instance, if you want to reduce carbon emissions quickly and simply, use a simple carbon tax. Or, if you like things that are slower and more complex (and therefore easier to sell politically), go to cap and trade.
Why do I prefer free markets? Because they're easier. If you're going to run things by central planning instead of by free markets, then the central managers have to manage them. Command economies require a lot of good management in a small circle of bureaucrats. That requires a lot of local talent, and a lot of good luck. They have to stay on top of things, and adjust as they go, or things will fall apart.
Two examples.
First, the automobile Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency regulation. It originally contained a light truck loophole, which made sense because light trucks were working vehicles. Gradually, car makers moved to SUV's, because the lower MPG level allowed greater engine power. Detroit stymied an update to the regulations, as Detroit needed SUV's to compete with Asian manufacturers. That meant the growth of absurdly over-powered military vehicles, wasting gasoline and making the roads less safe overall (the occupants of SUVs are safer, but only because greater size means that when they hit a smaller vehicle, that smaller vehicle absorbs most of the kinetic energy, and therefore is much less safe).
Second, China mandated that utilities build wind power, but not that they use it, so they don't spend the extra money for transmission!
Also, China mandated "Buy Chinese", and the domestic manufacturers can't build turbines that can keep running!
Source http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/20/china-wind-power-business-energy-china.html
Just goes to show - you've got to keep on top of regulations...
Why do I prefer free markets? Because they're easier. If you're going to run things by central planning instead of by free markets, then the central managers have to manage them. Command economies require a lot of good management in a small circle of bureaucrats. That requires a lot of local talent, and a lot of good luck. They have to stay on top of things, and adjust as they go, or things will fall apart.
Two examples.
First, the automobile Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency regulation. It originally contained a light truck loophole, which made sense because light trucks were working vehicles. Gradually, car makers moved to SUV's, because the lower MPG level allowed greater engine power. Detroit stymied an update to the regulations, as Detroit needed SUV's to compete with Asian manufacturers. That meant the growth of absurdly over-powered military vehicles, wasting gasoline and making the roads less safe overall (the occupants of SUVs are safer, but only because greater size means that when they hit a smaller vehicle, that smaller vehicle absorbs most of the kinetic energy, and therefore is much less safe).
Second, China mandated that utilities build wind power, but not that they use it, so they don't spend the extra money for transmission!
Also, China mandated "Buy Chinese", and the domestic manufacturers can't build turbines that can keep running!
Source http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/20/china-wind-power-business-energy-china.html
Just goes to show - you've got to keep on top of regulations...
October 25, 2009
Volt battery costs, part 6
How likely are large reductions in lithium-ion battery costs?
Highly likely, according to their manufacturers.
"During a panel discussion at a plug-in vehicle conference in Detroit, several speakers said dramatic cost cuts are possible once the advanced batteries reach high-volume production...
Johnson Controls-Saft Advanced Battery Systems aims to reduce the cost of a lithium-ion battery pack by 50 per cent, said Michael Andrew, the venture's director of government affairs and external communications for hybrid electric battery systems....
Ric Fulop, vice-president of business development for A123 Systems Inc, said he believes the cost of battery packs could come down 9 per cent per year as the industry matures....
Ramanathan...said initial costs may be too high because car manufacturers are over-engineering cars and battery packs to ensure there are no mechanical glitches that could sour consumers on the technology."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10605008&pnum=0
Highly likely, according to their manufacturers.
"During a panel discussion at a plug-in vehicle conference in Detroit, several speakers said dramatic cost cuts are possible once the advanced batteries reach high-volume production...
Johnson Controls-Saft Advanced Battery Systems aims to reduce the cost of a lithium-ion battery pack by 50 per cent, said Michael Andrew, the venture's director of government affairs and external communications for hybrid electric battery systems....
Ric Fulop, vice-president of business development for A123 Systems Inc, said he believes the cost of battery packs could come down 9 per cent per year as the industry matures....
Ramanathan...said initial costs may be too high because car manufacturers are over-engineering cars and battery packs to ensure there are no mechanical glitches that could sour consumers on the technology."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10605008&pnum=0
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