Yes, battery prices appear to be continuing their long-term decline rate of 7-10% per year. The Reuters article below indicates that consumer li-ion is going for $300/kWh: that's 25% less than several years ago. Please note that consumer devices have the advantage of large volumes, but their size is small and costly. For instance, an iPhone has a 5.3 watt hour battery. The Volt's battery pack at 16 kWh is 3,000 times as large. So, when the Volt gets to 25k vehicles per year, that's equivalent to 75M cell phones (a little more than Apple sold in 2011). That's pretty good scale.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/11/autos-batteries-idINL2E8IB5UT20120711
On the other hand, individual cells for automotive uses are much larger, which is cheaper to manufacture (per unit capacity) and can use cheaper materials (because weight isn't nearly as critical).
The bottom line: automotive traction batteries will stay cheaper than consumer batteries (which will continue to fall in price, driven by intense pressure from places like Apple).
2) The overall price of an EV is a very complex mix, and can't be reduced to the cost of the battery. Car makers have many costs: drive train; ancillary devices such as steering and braking; suspension/wheels; body (including aerodynamics); etc. Almost all of these have to be redesigned for an electric drive train (which includes EV/HEV/PHEV/EREV) because the design requirements are very different. For instance, ICE vehicle efficiency is dominated by weight. Weight is much less important for EVs because they have regenerative braking, so aerodynamics move strongly to the forefront. Another example: elimination of mechanical control and power transmission (brakes, steering, etc) affects a lot of secondary systems. Heck, window wipers get redesigned!
Battery packs are complex: there are the individual cells; the connections; cooling and heating systems (air and liquid); charge and discharge management systems; temperature sensors, heat insulators and radiators; electronic communications and control, with hardware and software (including 10M lines of code, more than recent fighter jets); containment systems, structural support and crash protection; etc.
So, economies of scale apply to the whole car, and cost comparisons are complex. That's why I raise the example of the Prius C, which has the advantage of Toyota's economies of scale and willingness/ability to aggressively price a new vehicle based on long-term costs before it has achieved the large sale volumes which will enable those low costs.
A Prius C has both ICE and electric drivetrains, each of which are sufficient to drive the vehicle. That's substantial duplication. And, they have a full battery pack (with battery management), yet they can price the vehicle starting at $19k. We can get a pretty good idea what a small PHEV could cost, based on that. Of course, we have a plug-in Prius for the purpose of analysis, but it's larger, and IMO Toyota isn't pricing it quite as aggressively because it's newer tech (e.g., it uses li-ion), and Toyota is very careful with it's roll-out rampup of new tech (especially lately, with it's recent quality failures).
The Ford quote is a good example of this complexity. Look at the range of costs: 12k-15k! Ford's purchasing guys know the battery cost to the penny, so that tells us that Mulally is including a lot of stuff in that figure, and signalling to us that the line of inclusion is very fuzzy. The alternative is that Mullally doesn't know anything about the EV program, which seems unlikely to me.
3) I think everyone in the car industry is agreed that li-ion is the future. On the other hand, Toyota can be paradoxically conservative, and NIMH has worked quite well for them, so they're going to transition away from it slowly. For instance, the main Prius and the C continue to use NIMH, but some new versions like the plug-in, and the V (in Japan and Europe) are using li-ion.
A final note - I don't think oil prices will stay above $150 for an extended period of time any time soon. I used hyperbole in my last post to point out the cost effectiveness of EVs (including all their variations), so that we can all be clear that suburbia is not threatened by PO (for better or worse).
August 7, 2012
July 24, 2012
Are EVs affordable in a Post Peak Oil world?
Sure.
Consider the Prius C: it costs 2/3 as much as the average US new light vehicle($20k vs 30k), and uses 40% as much fuel. If oil prices tripled the cost of fuel per mile in a Prius C would still be no higher than the average US light vehicle. As best I can tell (based on Edmunds data), the C has the lowest total cost of ownership for any light vehicle.
Then, if we add $10k in batteries to the Prius C (20kWh, assuming a conservatively high cost per kWh for cells of $500), bringing the cost only up to that of the average US new light vehicle, we'd have a plug-in with an electric range of 60 miles (3 miles/kWh x 20kWh), reducing fuel consumption to less than 10% of the average US light vehicle. That's a scale small enough to be covered by solely by ethanol.
Electric vehicles of various sorts will work very well (though some people will have to wait for them to become available used). The only thing stopping them now is artificially low fuel prices.
Consider the Prius C: it costs 2/3 as much as the average US new light vehicle($20k vs 30k), and uses 40% as much fuel. If oil prices tripled the cost of fuel per mile in a Prius C would still be no higher than the average US light vehicle. As best I can tell (based on Edmunds data), the C has the lowest total cost of ownership for any light vehicle.
Then, if we add $10k in batteries to the Prius C (20kWh, assuming a conservatively high cost per kWh for cells of $500), bringing the cost only up to that of the average US new light vehicle, we'd have a plug-in with an electric range of 60 miles (3 miles/kWh x 20kWh), reducing fuel consumption to less than 10% of the average US light vehicle. That's a scale small enough to be covered by solely by ethanol.
Electric vehicles of various sorts will work very well (though some people will have to wait for them to become available used). The only thing stopping them now is artificially low fuel prices.
May 18, 2012
Is it easy to forecast oil production and pricing?
No, it's very, very difficult.
Here's an example.
"Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week.
...The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004. "
That means that we could achieve better accuracy by flipping a coin!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/oil-may-fall-as-seaway-insufficient-to-ease-glut-survey-shows.html
Here's an example.
"Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week.
...The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004. "
That means that we could achieve better accuracy by flipping a coin!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/oil-may-fall-as-seaway-insufficient-to-ease-glut-survey-shows.html
April 21, 2012
Is energy progress good for the economy?
It looks that way. Apparently the US states In the Northeast Cap And Trade Program have reduced CO2 20% faster than others, while growing GDP twice as fast as others....
"Northeastern states participating in America’s first carbon cap and trade program have outperformed the rest of the country in GDP growth and reduction in global warming pollution.
That’s according to a new report from Environment New Jersey, which examined emissions data and economic growth indicators from 2000 to 2009.
The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is a nine-state cap-and-trade market designed to reduce emissions in the utility sector 10% by 2018. A recent independent analysis showed that the program has already created $1.6 billion in economic value and set the stage for $1.1 billion in ratepayer savings through investments in efficiency and renewable energy.
This latest report shows that states under the RGGI program saw a 20% greater reduction in per-capita carbon emissions than non-RGGI states — all while growing per-capita GDP at double the rate of the rest of the country."
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/20/468659/states-in-northeast-cap-and-trade-program-reduce-co2-faster-grow-gdp-other-states/
March 27, 2012
What blocks change? Resistance to Change #9
"Why do some nations, such as the United States, become wealthy and powerful, while others remain stuck in poverty? And why do some of those powers, from ancient Rome to the modern Soviet Union, expand and then collapse?
... Countries that have what they call “inclusive” political governments — those extending political and property rights as broadly as possible, while enforcing laws and providing some public infrastructure — experience the greatest growth over the long run. By contrast, Acemoglu and Robinson assert, countries with “extractive” political systems — in which power is wielded by a small elite — either fail to grow broadly or wither away after short bursts of economic expansion.
Elites resist innovation because they have a vested interest in resisting change — and new technologies that create growth can alter the balance of economic or political assets in a country.
“Technological innovation makes human societies prosperous, but also involves the replacement of the old with the new, and the destruction of the economic privileges and political power of certain people,” Acemoglu and Robinson write. Yet when elites temporarily preserve power by preventing innovation, they ultimately impoverish their own states.
... “Most consequential ‘policy mistakes’ are by design,” Acemoglu says. “These leaders are choosing policies that don’t maximize economic prosperity, because their objective is different: to hold onto power or simply enrich themselves.”
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/why-nations-fail-0323.html
A case in point: Fox News is doing it's best to kill the Chevy Volt in it's cradle with relentless attacks, filled with misinformation and cues to it's followers that "we" don't drive EVs.
This despite the fact that Fox News pretends to be patriotic, and the Chevy Volt has a dramatic potential to help the US car industry and reduce US dependence on oil imports.
A wealthy elite is willing to hurt the economy and forego general growth (by preventing a transition away from Fossil Fuels) to preserve it's privileges.
... Countries that have what they call “inclusive” political governments — those extending political and property rights as broadly as possible, while enforcing laws and providing some public infrastructure — experience the greatest growth over the long run. By contrast, Acemoglu and Robinson assert, countries with “extractive” political systems — in which power is wielded by a small elite — either fail to grow broadly or wither away after short bursts of economic expansion.
Elites resist innovation because they have a vested interest in resisting change — and new technologies that create growth can alter the balance of economic or political assets in a country.
“Technological innovation makes human societies prosperous, but also involves the replacement of the old with the new, and the destruction of the economic privileges and political power of certain people,” Acemoglu and Robinson write. Yet when elites temporarily preserve power by preventing innovation, they ultimately impoverish their own states.
... “Most consequential ‘policy mistakes’ are by design,” Acemoglu says. “These leaders are choosing policies that don’t maximize economic prosperity, because their objective is different: to hold onto power or simply enrich themselves.”
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/why-nations-fail-0323.html
A case in point: Fox News is doing it's best to kill the Chevy Volt in it's cradle with relentless attacks, filled with misinformation and cues to it's followers that "we" don't drive EVs.
This despite the fact that Fox News pretends to be patriotic, and the Chevy Volt has a dramatic potential to help the US car industry and reduce US dependence on oil imports.
A wealthy elite is willing to hurt the economy and forego general growth (by preventing a transition away from Fossil Fuels) to preserve it's privileges.
February 22, 2012
Resistance to Change: #8 in a Annoying Series
New book out today:
"The Fox Effect"
"The Fox Effect follows the career of Ailes... consultant for Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush... president of Rupert Murdoch’s flagship conservative cable news network... political operative... extraordinary power and influence to spread a partisan political agenda that is at odds with long-established, widely held standards of fairness and objectivity in news reporting."
In the conversations leading to the creation of Fox News, the project was referred to as "GOP T.V.", "Grand Old Party Television".
When talking about any kind of public policy issue with a heavy consumer of Fox product, it is very difficult to agree on matters of simple fact.
http://www.amazon.com/Fox-Effect-Network-Propaganda-ebook/dp/B0051ANPQK
http://www.ushistory.org/gop/origins.htm
"The Fox Effect"
"The Fox Effect follows the career of Ailes... consultant for Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush... president of Rupert Murdoch’s flagship conservative cable news network... political operative... extraordinary power and influence to spread a partisan political agenda that is at odds with long-established, widely held standards of fairness and objectivity in news reporting."
In the conversations leading to the creation of Fox News, the project was referred to as "GOP T.V.", "Grand Old Party Television".
When talking about any kind of public policy issue with a heavy consumer of Fox product, it is very difficult to agree on matters of simple fact.
http://www.amazon.com/Fox-Effect-Network-Propaganda-ebook/dp/B0051ANPQK
http://www.ushistory.org/gop/origins.htm
February 21, 2012
Are electric trucks now viable?
Yes, it looks that way, after a long period in which very low volumes made costs look high.
Here's an electric truck whose battery must cost less than $500/kWh: 80kWh @$500/kWh gives $40k, more than half of the sales price of $70k. This plumbing company expects their new trucks to reduce operating costs by about $7 per year, and capital costs must be dropping as well, as they last 3x as long:
"It's been a couple years since we first saw the Boulder Electric Vehicle prototype in action but now comes word that the company has delivered its very first production vehicle. The initial DV-500 (as it is affectionately called) has been sold to Denver-area Precision Plumbing,Heating & Cooling who have made a commitment to buy 20 of the all-electrics at a very reasonable-sounding $70,000 apiece.
In addition to obvious changes in appearance, its performance also differs slightly from the original. The production version boasts an 80-kWh battery pack made up of China-sourced lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) cells that weigh in at 1,300 lbs and are said to be good for 120 miles of range. Power comes from an 80-kW AC motor that gives the 7,000-lb truck a 70 mile-per-hour top speed. Charging can take up to eight hours.
Precision Plumbing's Tom Robichaud says that despite the higher up-front costs, he expects to save $6,000 to $8,000 per vehicle per year in lower operating costs and anticipates the trucks to be good for 300,000 miles. Currently, he says, the Sprinter vans he uses now are replaced after 100,000 miles. In anticipation of the electric fleet, the company has also installed a solar array at its facilities.
Boulder Electric Vehicle reportedly has five production lines set up and is busy building the vehicles for Precision and other customers. The company also has plans for a bigger truck that doubles the 500 cubic foot capacity of the DV-500. Hit the jump for a couple clips featuring Mr. Robichaud and his new promotionally wrapped plumbing van."
http://green.autoblog.com/2012/02/03/boulder-electric-vehicle-delivers-first-truck-to-precision-plumb/
"electric vehicles can markedly lower the costs of a fleet of delivery trucks. That’s the conclusion of a new MIT study showing that electric vehicles are not just environmentally friendly, but also have a potential economic upside for many kinds of businesses.
The study, conducted by researchers at MIT’s Center for Transportation and Logistics (CTL), finds that electric vehicles can cost 9 to 12 percent less to operate than trucks powered by diesel engines, when used to make deliveries on an everyday basis in big cities.
...there have been “no real surprises from a reliability perspective, but I was surprised by the drivers’ acceptance, to the point where they do not ever want to drive a diesel [truck] again.”
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/ctl-electric-powered-trucks-0201.html
“Nearly 20% of our medium-heavy duty delivery trucks in the state of California are slated to be transitioned to all-electric vehicles. We have seen the accelerated growth and acquisition of this innovative technology because of the support from California. It’s these private and public partnerships that create the momentum that alternative fuel vehicles need to become even more competitive.
...In the U.S., Frito-Lay hopes to reduce its total fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2020, compared to 2007 baseline. "
http://fleetowner.com/running-green/frito-lay-expands-all-electric-delivery-truck-fleet
Here's an electric truck whose battery must cost less than $500/kWh: 80kWh @$500/kWh gives $40k, more than half of the sales price of $70k. This plumbing company expects their new trucks to reduce operating costs by about $7 per year, and capital costs must be dropping as well, as they last 3x as long:
"It's been a couple years since we first saw the Boulder Electric Vehicle prototype in action but now comes word that the company has delivered its very first production vehicle. The initial DV-500 (as it is affectionately called) has been sold to Denver-area Precision Plumbing,Heating & Cooling who have made a commitment to buy 20 of the all-electrics at a very reasonable-sounding $70,000 apiece.
In addition to obvious changes in appearance, its performance also differs slightly from the original. The production version boasts an 80-kWh battery pack made up of China-sourced lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) cells that weigh in at 1,300 lbs and are said to be good for 120 miles of range. Power comes from an 80-kW AC motor that gives the 7,000-lb truck a 70 mile-per-hour top speed. Charging can take up to eight hours.
Precision Plumbing's Tom Robichaud says that despite the higher up-front costs, he expects to save $6,000 to $8,000 per vehicle per year in lower operating costs and anticipates the trucks to be good for 300,000 miles. Currently, he says, the Sprinter vans he uses now are replaced after 100,000 miles. In anticipation of the electric fleet, the company has also installed a solar array at its facilities.
Boulder Electric Vehicle reportedly has five production lines set up and is busy building the vehicles for Precision and other customers. The company also has plans for a bigger truck that doubles the 500 cubic foot capacity of the DV-500. Hit the jump for a couple clips featuring Mr. Robichaud and his new promotionally wrapped plumbing van."
http://green.autoblog.com/2012/02/03/boulder-electric-vehicle-delivers-first-truck-to-precision-plumb/
"electric vehicles can markedly lower the costs of a fleet of delivery trucks. That’s the conclusion of a new MIT study showing that electric vehicles are not just environmentally friendly, but also have a potential economic upside for many kinds of businesses.
The study, conducted by researchers at MIT’s Center for Transportation and Logistics (CTL), finds that electric vehicles can cost 9 to 12 percent less to operate than trucks powered by diesel engines, when used to make deliveries on an everyday basis in big cities.
...there have been “no real surprises from a reliability perspective, but I was surprised by the drivers’ acceptance, to the point where they do not ever want to drive a diesel [truck] again.”
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/ctl-electric-powered-trucks-0201.html
“Nearly 20% of our medium-heavy duty delivery trucks in the state of California are slated to be transitioned to all-electric vehicles. We have seen the accelerated growth and acquisition of this innovative technology because of the support from California. It’s these private and public partnerships that create the momentum that alternative fuel vehicles need to become even more competitive.
...In the U.S., Frito-Lay hopes to reduce its total fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2020, compared to 2007 baseline. "
http://fleetowner.com/running-green/frito-lay-expands-all-electric-delivery-truck-fleet
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