May 15, 2009

Is solar cost competitive?

Not quite yet, but it's coming:

"The economics of solar power are changing rapidly. And if the Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development (PI) is right that solar module prices will fall more than 50% by 2012, grid parity will be achieved across many parts of the US."

They assume rising electricity prices (which is pretty realistic, with CO2 pricing apparently on the way), but we don't need to focus on that.

The fact is, that PV grid-parity is beginning to emerge right now for a very few specific applications and locations. This will just expand over the coming years, and the assumption of rising power prices will only change the inflection point by 2-3 years.

Also, keep in mind that this is the unsubsidized price, which doesn't reflect any of the externalities, like CO2, sulfur, etc, etc.

The fact is, that solar is here: as production expands, prices will continue to fall, and demand will rise explosively.

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