No.
Well, personal transportation accounts for the majority of oil consumption.
Personal transportation is easily done with EVs - a Chevy Volt costs less to own and operate than the average US passenger vehicle, and gets 200MPG. A Nissan Leaf is the lowest cost vehicle on the road.
EVs can be ramped up pretty quickly - They're 3-4% of sales right now (including hybrids). Production volume could be doubled essentially overnight, and doubled every two years thereafter. In 8 years you could be at 80% of new vehicles, and in another 5 years they'd account for 50% of vehicle miles driven. In another 6 years they'd account for 75% (vehicles less than 6 years old account for 50% of VMT). Ethanol accounts for about 10% of passenger transportation fuel, so a fleet of Chevy Volts could be powered with no oil at all.
There's a pretty straightforward path forward, if we needed a short term fix to get us through a period of fast depletion, or another oil shock while we were transitioning to EVs. The US could reduce passenger fuel consumption by 50% essentially overnight by raising the average passengers per vehicle from 1.2 to 2.4. Look at Uber, look at smartphones for connecting with people. There are very, very few destinations in the US that no one else is going to. On almost any road, look around: there are other people on the road, going in the same direction.
With an ad hoc smartphone based system, you could find someone going in your direction almost anywhere. And, even with old-fashioned employer-based systems, about 10% of Americans carpool to work right now.
Carpooling - the horror.
Showing posts with label EV. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EV. Show all posts
February 20, 2015
July 11, 2014
How quickly will EV sales grow?
Reasonably quickly, but not as fast we'd like.
US pure EV sales have doubled each year for the last three years (from a very small base) and pure EV and PHEV sales are growing faster than hybrid sales did when they were introduced . Tesla has a large backorder book. Nonetheless, PHEV sales aren't growing as quickly as many people had hoped.
Cost isn't the problem.
Hybrids, EREVs and EVs are already the low cost choice for Total Cost of Ownership (per Edmunds.com), so if cost were the driver....we would have reached the tipping point. Buyers of new light duty vehicles (cars, pickups, SUVs) sales just don't seem to be very price sensitive. The minimum cost US vehicle is about $11k, while the average vehicle is more than $30k. The average new car gets about 25MPG, while 55-100MPG vehicles are available. New car buyers just aren't paying much attention to minimizing costs.
Supply isn't the problem: Toyota, Nissan, Ford and GM will tell you that they could double production of their hybrids, EREVs and EVs literally overnight, if demand were there.
There are two big problems:
First, the vast majority of people are very slow to move to new things. Individual consumers have to see people around them using this new thing for quite a while to become comfortable with them. For example, online food ordering has overwhelming benefits for parents, but Webvan went bankrupt: they counted on people moving to a new thing too quickly.
Commercial users of heavy duty vehicles face large problems of economy of scale, long-lived investments and operating in a tough competitive market. Large fleet customers have been experimenting with pilot programs, but have been afraid of being first movers ("Pioneers are the ones with arrows in their backs"). That suggests that the early rate of adoption may be deceptive. At a certain tipping point fleet buyers will decide high oil prices are permanent, and that electrified/alt fuel vehicles are clearly cost justified. Then, sales will grow quickly.
Second, the primary reason for EVs is external costs like Climate Change and the cost of military conflict in the M.E., and as a society we haven't prioritized dealing with those costs. We just haven't. Until we do, with things like carbon and fuel taxes (which even the most conservative economists support for external costs) and acceptance by Republicans, it's unrealistic to expect fast movement by consumers.
US pure EV sales have doubled each year for the last three years (from a very small base) and pure EV and PHEV sales are growing faster than hybrid sales did when they were introduced . Tesla has a large backorder book. Nonetheless, PHEV sales aren't growing as quickly as many people had hoped.
Cost isn't the problem.
Hybrids, EREVs and EVs are already the low cost choice for Total Cost of Ownership (per Edmunds.com), so if cost were the driver....we would have reached the tipping point. Buyers of new light duty vehicles (cars, pickups, SUVs) sales just don't seem to be very price sensitive. The minimum cost US vehicle is about $11k, while the average vehicle is more than $30k. The average new car gets about 25MPG, while 55-100MPG vehicles are available. New car buyers just aren't paying much attention to minimizing costs.
Supply isn't the problem: Toyota, Nissan, Ford and GM will tell you that they could double production of their hybrids, EREVs and EVs literally overnight, if demand were there.
There are two big problems:
First, the vast majority of people are very slow to move to new things. Individual consumers have to see people around them using this new thing for quite a while to become comfortable with them. For example, online food ordering has overwhelming benefits for parents, but Webvan went bankrupt: they counted on people moving to a new thing too quickly.
Commercial users of heavy duty vehicles face large problems of economy of scale, long-lived investments and operating in a tough competitive market. Large fleet customers have been experimenting with pilot programs, but have been afraid of being first movers ("Pioneers are the ones with arrows in their backs"). That suggests that the early rate of adoption may be deceptive. At a certain tipping point fleet buyers will decide high oil prices are permanent, and that electrified/alt fuel vehicles are clearly cost justified. Then, sales will grow quickly.
Second, the primary reason for EVs is external costs like Climate Change and the cost of military conflict in the M.E., and as a society we haven't prioritized dealing with those costs. We just haven't. Until we do, with things like carbon and fuel taxes (which even the most conservative economists support for external costs) and acceptance by Republicans, it's unrealistic to expect fast movement by consumers.
February 21, 2012
Are electric trucks now viable?
Yes, it looks that way, after a long period in which very low volumes made costs look high.
Here's an electric truck whose battery must cost less than $500/kWh: 80kWh @$500/kWh gives $40k, more than half of the sales price of $70k. This plumbing company expects their new trucks to reduce operating costs by about $7 per year, and capital costs must be dropping as well, as they last 3x as long:
"It's been a couple years since we first saw the Boulder Electric Vehicle prototype in action but now comes word that the company has delivered its very first production vehicle. The initial DV-500 (as it is affectionately called) has been sold to Denver-area Precision Plumbing,Heating & Cooling who have made a commitment to buy 20 of the all-electrics at a very reasonable-sounding $70,000 apiece.
In addition to obvious changes in appearance, its performance also differs slightly from the original. The production version boasts an 80-kWh battery pack made up of China-sourced lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) cells that weigh in at 1,300 lbs and are said to be good for 120 miles of range. Power comes from an 80-kW AC motor that gives the 7,000-lb truck a 70 mile-per-hour top speed. Charging can take up to eight hours.
Precision Plumbing's Tom Robichaud says that despite the higher up-front costs, he expects to save $6,000 to $8,000 per vehicle per year in lower operating costs and anticipates the trucks to be good for 300,000 miles. Currently, he says, the Sprinter vans he uses now are replaced after 100,000 miles. In anticipation of the electric fleet, the company has also installed a solar array at its facilities.
Boulder Electric Vehicle reportedly has five production lines set up and is busy building the vehicles for Precision and other customers. The company also has plans for a bigger truck that doubles the 500 cubic foot capacity of the DV-500. Hit the jump for a couple clips featuring Mr. Robichaud and his new promotionally wrapped plumbing van."
http://green.autoblog.com/2012/02/03/boulder-electric-vehicle-delivers-first-truck-to-precision-plumb/
"electric vehicles can markedly lower the costs of a fleet of delivery trucks. That’s the conclusion of a new MIT study showing that electric vehicles are not just environmentally friendly, but also have a potential economic upside for many kinds of businesses.
The study, conducted by researchers at MIT’s Center for Transportation and Logistics (CTL), finds that electric vehicles can cost 9 to 12 percent less to operate than trucks powered by diesel engines, when used to make deliveries on an everyday basis in big cities.
...there have been “no real surprises from a reliability perspective, but I was surprised by the drivers’ acceptance, to the point where they do not ever want to drive a diesel [truck] again.”
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/ctl-electric-powered-trucks-0201.html
“Nearly 20% of our medium-heavy duty delivery trucks in the state of California are slated to be transitioned to all-electric vehicles. We have seen the accelerated growth and acquisition of this innovative technology because of the support from California. It’s these private and public partnerships that create the momentum that alternative fuel vehicles need to become even more competitive.
...In the U.S., Frito-Lay hopes to reduce its total fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2020, compared to 2007 baseline. "
http://fleetowner.com/running-green/frito-lay-expands-all-electric-delivery-truck-fleet
Here's an electric truck whose battery must cost less than $500/kWh: 80kWh @$500/kWh gives $40k, more than half of the sales price of $70k. This plumbing company expects their new trucks to reduce operating costs by about $7 per year, and capital costs must be dropping as well, as they last 3x as long:
"It's been a couple years since we first saw the Boulder Electric Vehicle prototype in action but now comes word that the company has delivered its very first production vehicle. The initial DV-500 (as it is affectionately called) has been sold to Denver-area Precision Plumbing,Heating & Cooling who have made a commitment to buy 20 of the all-electrics at a very reasonable-sounding $70,000 apiece.
In addition to obvious changes in appearance, its performance also differs slightly from the original. The production version boasts an 80-kWh battery pack made up of China-sourced lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) cells that weigh in at 1,300 lbs and are said to be good for 120 miles of range. Power comes from an 80-kW AC motor that gives the 7,000-lb truck a 70 mile-per-hour top speed. Charging can take up to eight hours.
Precision Plumbing's Tom Robichaud says that despite the higher up-front costs, he expects to save $6,000 to $8,000 per vehicle per year in lower operating costs and anticipates the trucks to be good for 300,000 miles. Currently, he says, the Sprinter vans he uses now are replaced after 100,000 miles. In anticipation of the electric fleet, the company has also installed a solar array at its facilities.
Boulder Electric Vehicle reportedly has five production lines set up and is busy building the vehicles for Precision and other customers. The company also has plans for a bigger truck that doubles the 500 cubic foot capacity of the DV-500. Hit the jump for a couple clips featuring Mr. Robichaud and his new promotionally wrapped plumbing van."
http://green.autoblog.com/2012/02/03/boulder-electric-vehicle-delivers-first-truck-to-precision-plumb/
"electric vehicles can markedly lower the costs of a fleet of delivery trucks. That’s the conclusion of a new MIT study showing that electric vehicles are not just environmentally friendly, but also have a potential economic upside for many kinds of businesses.
The study, conducted by researchers at MIT’s Center for Transportation and Logistics (CTL), finds that electric vehicles can cost 9 to 12 percent less to operate than trucks powered by diesel engines, when used to make deliveries on an everyday basis in big cities.
...there have been “no real surprises from a reliability perspective, but I was surprised by the drivers’ acceptance, to the point where they do not ever want to drive a diesel [truck] again.”
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/ctl-electric-powered-trucks-0201.html
“Nearly 20% of our medium-heavy duty delivery trucks in the state of California are slated to be transitioned to all-electric vehicles. We have seen the accelerated growth and acquisition of this innovative technology because of the support from California. It’s these private and public partnerships that create the momentum that alternative fuel vehicles need to become even more competitive.
...In the U.S., Frito-Lay hopes to reduce its total fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2020, compared to 2007 baseline. "
http://fleetowner.com/running-green/frito-lay-expands-all-electric-delivery-truck-fleet
January 12, 2012
Will EVs and hybrids take off quickly? (part 2)
Probably not soon. Even though hybrids and EVs are competitive with conventional ICE vehicles, they won't sell well until until they're clearly cheaper. Hybrids and EVs are much cheaper, if we include all of the external costs of oil - oil wars, pollution, etc, etc. But that's not priced into the vehicles:
Hybrids:
"The challenge with selling hybrids is that gasoline engines have become more efficient and the cost of hybrids haven't come down fast enough to justify the added expense for many buyers, said David Champion, senior director of the Auto Test Center at the Yonkers, New York, magazine Consumer Reports.
He pointed to Honda Motor Co.'s Civic, which gets 32 mpg in combined city and highway mileage, and the Civic hybrid, which gets 44 mpg. The hybrid version of the car saves a consumer $322 in fuel a year, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Given the added sticker price, it would take more than six years to get the money back on a similarly equipped car at today's fuel prices.
Mike Jackson, chief executive of Fort Lauderdale, Florida auto retail chain AutoNation Inc., said that 75 percent of customers come into his showrooms and want to talk about hybrids. Only about 2.5 percent of AutoNation sales are hybrids. "What happens from the 75 percent consideration to the 2.5 percent commitment?" Jackson said in an interview. "They look at the price premium for the technology, which is already subsidized and discounted, and say 'the payback period is too long; not for me.' It's a back-of-the envelope conversation on the part of the American consumer."
EVs
"The battery in an electric car still adds $10,000 to the price of a car at current technology costs and it will be difficult to reduce that penalty in the near future, he said."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/01/10/bloomberg_articlesLXK78V6K50XT.DTL&ao=all
Change is difficult: for most people to move to something new requires a strong incentive, not something that seems roughly as good as what they have now.
An EV will save about $2,000 per year over the average US vehicle - the $20,000 savings over 10 years is clearly worth it, but a 5 year payback just feels too long for the average consumer.
Hybrids:
"The challenge with selling hybrids is that gasoline engines have become more efficient and the cost of hybrids haven't come down fast enough to justify the added expense for many buyers, said David Champion, senior director of the Auto Test Center at the Yonkers, New York, magazine Consumer Reports.
He pointed to Honda Motor Co.'s Civic, which gets 32 mpg in combined city and highway mileage, and the Civic hybrid, which gets 44 mpg. The hybrid version of the car saves a consumer $322 in fuel a year, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Given the added sticker price, it would take more than six years to get the money back on a similarly equipped car at today's fuel prices.
Mike Jackson, chief executive of Fort Lauderdale, Florida auto retail chain AutoNation Inc., said that 75 percent of customers come into his showrooms and want to talk about hybrids. Only about 2.5 percent of AutoNation sales are hybrids. "What happens from the 75 percent consideration to the 2.5 percent commitment?" Jackson said in an interview. "They look at the price premium for the technology, which is already subsidized and discounted, and say 'the payback period is too long; not for me.' It's a back-of-the envelope conversation on the part of the American consumer."
EVs
"The battery in an electric car still adds $10,000 to the price of a car at current technology costs and it will be difficult to reduce that penalty in the near future, he said."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/01/10/bloomberg_articlesLXK78V6K50XT.DTL&ao=all
Change is difficult: for most people to move to something new requires a strong incentive, not something that seems roughly as good as what they have now.
An EV will save about $2,000 per year over the average US vehicle - the $20,000 savings over 10 years is clearly worth it, but a 5 year payback just feels too long for the average consumer.
September 29, 2011
Are electric vehicles fun to drive?
Yes. It looks like they're much more fun than conventional gas vehicles. The technical details: Power equals torque. ICE engine ratings traditionally are for peak torque. For EVs, we see that immediate torque is more important (both at zero speed and at mid-range speeds). That instant power just makes EVs more fun to drive.
Plus, they're quieter, have less vibration, and the battery weight lowers the center of gravity and provides great traction:
"There are many reasons why we call the Chevrolet Volt the best car in the world, but the fact that it can handle 1,100 miles driven at or near 73 MPH in flawless comfort and yielding close to 37 MPG, is one of them. The marketing folks at Chevrolet need to stop comparing the Volt to only the Prius, and focus just as much comparing it against other types of premium cars such as the Volvo C30, Audi A4, Mercedes C-class and BMW 3-series -- but with the fuel economy for long trips only 10 MPG behind the Prius, instead of 20 MPG for the others.
What is the bottom-line verdict of this review? If you are okay with a modestly sized four-seat car with modest cargo space, the Volt is the market's best premium car today. With tax incentives, the car may cost you close to $40,000, which compares reasonably with other performance/luxury sedans in its class.
I give it a perfect 10 out of 10 -- a verdict I have never given to any other car, ever. It's all about superior, and in this case unique, technology."
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11253286/1/testing-chevy-volts-endurance.html
------------------------------------------------------------
"The car is so pleasant to drive that I can’t imagine finding early adopters to be a problem. But after that, I’d like to see the Volt become available to the rest of us. Which is why we should hope for a kind of EV arms race, for a significant drop in battery prices and a rapid expansion of plug-in infrastructure. Because after putting a couple dozen highway miles on a vehicle like the Volt, plenty of people simply won’t want to go back to a conventional car."
http://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2010-10/never-mind-naysayers-chevy-volt-excellent
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The revelation of driving the Tesla is that electric cars make really fun toys. The Tesla uses electric motors and software instead of pistons and displacement to generate its super-torquey, race-car performance. But behind the wheel, you don't miss the gasoline. "
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704201404574589900770542192.html
"The experience was exhilarating. "
http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/
Monday, January 25, 2010
"910 Miles Per Gallon*"
----------------------------------------------------------------
Consider how much time, capital, and engineering brainpower was invested to get the Porshe 911 to 0-60 in under 4 seconds: the first model rolled out in 1963 and they broke through the 4 sec barrier around 2005.
Tesla was founded in 2003. By 2009 it released the first roadsters which also did 0-60 in less than 4 seconds.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
In November 2010 DESIGN NEWS an article by Sr. Technical Editor Charles J. Murray, Electronics entitled ‘Chevy Volt Goes Beyond Green’ reports GM engineers saying VOLT OUTPERFORMS gasoline burning vehicles. The story line underscores Pamela Fletcher’s experience with testing VOLT across the Rockies.
Murray writes: “Clearly though, its [VOLT] much more than that” ...here’s the point, VOLT comes out as being another whole driving experience, a dimension unlike anything ICE.
Plus, they're quieter, have less vibration, and the battery weight lowers the center of gravity and provides great traction:
"There are many reasons why we call the Chevrolet Volt the best car in the world, but the fact that it can handle 1,100 miles driven at or near 73 MPH in flawless comfort and yielding close to 37 MPG, is one of them. The marketing folks at Chevrolet need to stop comparing the Volt to only the Prius, and focus just as much comparing it against other types of premium cars such as the Volvo C30, Audi A4, Mercedes C-class and BMW 3-series -- but with the fuel economy for long trips only 10 MPG behind the Prius, instead of 20 MPG for the others.
What is the bottom-line verdict of this review? If you are okay with a modestly sized four-seat car with modest cargo space, the Volt is the market's best premium car today. With tax incentives, the car may cost you close to $40,000, which compares reasonably with other performance/luxury sedans in its class.
I give it a perfect 10 out of 10 -- a verdict I have never given to any other car, ever. It's all about superior, and in this case unique, technology."
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11253286/1/testing-chevy-volts-endurance.html
------------------------------------------------------------
"The car is so pleasant to drive that I can’t imagine finding early adopters to be a problem. But after that, I’d like to see the Volt become available to the rest of us. Which is why we should hope for a kind of EV arms race, for a significant drop in battery prices and a rapid expansion of plug-in infrastructure. Because after putting a couple dozen highway miles on a vehicle like the Volt, plenty of people simply won’t want to go back to a conventional car."
http://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2010-10/never-mind-naysayers-chevy-volt-excellent
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The revelation of driving the Tesla is that electric cars make really fun toys. The Tesla uses electric motors and software instead of pistons and displacement to generate its super-torquey, race-car performance. But behind the wheel, you don't miss the gasoline. "
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704201404574589900770542192.html
"The experience was exhilarating. "
http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/
Monday, January 25, 2010
"910 Miles Per Gallon*"
----------------------------------------------------------------
Consider how much time, capital, and engineering brainpower was invested to get the Porshe 911 to 0-60 in under 4 seconds: the first model rolled out in 1963 and they broke through the 4 sec barrier around 2005.
Tesla was founded in 2003. By 2009 it released the first roadsters which also did 0-60 in less than 4 seconds.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
In November 2010 DESIGN NEWS an article by Sr. Technical Editor Charles J. Murray, Electronics entitled ‘Chevy Volt Goes Beyond Green’ reports GM engineers saying VOLT OUTPERFORMS gasoline burning vehicles. The story line underscores Pamela Fletcher’s experience with testing VOLT across the Rockies.
Murray writes: “Clearly though, its [VOLT] much more than that” ...here’s the point, VOLT comes out as being another whole driving experience, a dimension unlike anything ICE.
September 24, 2011
What kind of car should we buy?
It seems to me that some kind of a variation on an EV (hybrid, plug-in hybrid, extended range EV, or pure EV) is the sensible answer to reducing and then eliminating oil consumption for personal transportation.
Consumer Reports said that a Prius was cost competitive at $3 gas; Kiplinger just said that the 5 year Total Cost of Ownership of a Chevy Volt is within $1,500 of a much inferior Chevy Cruze.
I only drive about 1,000 miles per year - I mostly use electric trains. Otherwise, I'd invest in something new and electric.
What do you drive?
Consumer Reports said that a Prius was cost competitive at $3 gas; Kiplinger just said that the 5 year Total Cost of Ownership of a Chevy Volt is within $1,500 of a much inferior Chevy Cruze.
I only drive about 1,000 miles per year - I mostly use electric trains. Otherwise, I'd invest in something new and electric.
What do you drive?
April 2, 2011
How much do batteries cost? - part 7.
I've been arguing for quite a while that battery costs, like the cost of any manufactured item, depend heavily on volumes. That means that any analysis of battery costs depends on the production volume that one assumes.
Here's an article that helps clarify that:
"One carmaker willing to share a number is Coda Automotive, a small California-based electric car startup. Dan Mosher, the company’s chief financial officer, also spoke at Electric Car 2.0. “The $375 price might be fiction, but it’s a fact that the costs are coming down quite dramatically. Today, we might still be around $1,000 to $1,200 per kilowatt-hour,” Mosher said. He expects the price to reach $375 per kilowatt-hour in the next five to 10 years.
Mosher cited advantages that Coda might have, because the company manufactures offshore (in China)—but that benefit pales to the advantage enjoyed by major carmakers. Nissan, by virtue of its joint venture with Japan’s NEC Corp., has decades of experience in mass-producing lithium ion batteries. The company is projecting first year global production of the Nissan Leaf at 50,000 units.
“Can somebody really build a vehicle where they pay $375 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, I would say that’s pushing it,” Duvall said. “What they may see is forward pricing and they know their 50,000th or 100,000th vehicle will have that pricing. There’s no physical reason, based on materials and price of production, why that can’t happen.”
See the rest of the article: http://www.plugincars.com/electric-car-battery-costs-don%E2%80%99t-believe-what-you-read.html
Here's an article that helps clarify that:
"One carmaker willing to share a number is Coda Automotive, a small California-based electric car startup. Dan Mosher, the company’s chief financial officer, also spoke at Electric Car 2.0. “The $375 price might be fiction, but it’s a fact that the costs are coming down quite dramatically. Today, we might still be around $1,000 to $1,200 per kilowatt-hour,” Mosher said. He expects the price to reach $375 per kilowatt-hour in the next five to 10 years.
Mosher cited advantages that Coda might have, because the company manufactures offshore (in China)—but that benefit pales to the advantage enjoyed by major carmakers. Nissan, by virtue of its joint venture with Japan’s NEC Corp., has decades of experience in mass-producing lithium ion batteries. The company is projecting first year global production of the Nissan Leaf at 50,000 units.
“Can somebody really build a vehicle where they pay $375 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, I would say that’s pushing it,” Duvall said. “What they may see is forward pricing and they know their 50,000th or 100,000th vehicle will have that pricing. There’s no physical reason, based on materials and price of production, why that can’t happen.”
See the rest of the article: http://www.plugincars.com/electric-car-battery-costs-don%E2%80%99t-believe-what-you-read.html
January 12, 2011
How much do batteries cost? - part 6
Battery costs, like the cost of any manufactured item, depend heavily on volumes.
We see that here:
""If (Tesla's battery structure) works, we won't have to wait for a breakthrough in battery technology to develop a relatively cheap electric vehicle," Executive Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada, who heads Toyota's research and development, told Reuters in an interview at the Detroit auto show on Tuesday.
"It could be as low as one-third of the cost of batteries being developed by car makers, because (laptop) batteries are produced in massive volumes." Source
That 67% cost reduction includes a sophisticated liquid cooling and battery management system, and extensive internal thermal isolation, which should be at least as expensive as the Volt's battery systems, and rather more expensive than those of the much simpler Leaf systems.
The batteries being developed for vehicles should cost less than laptop batteries very soon, because it's much less expensive to manufacture larger batteries than the equivalent in the form of hundreds of tiny laptop batteries. EV volumes will grow to the point of economies of scale very quickly: if an EV like the Leaf uses the equivalent of 3,100 laptop batteries1, it only takes 85,000 EVs2, to equal the volume of about 260,000,000 laptops...
1 the Tesla has 6,813 batteries for about 53kWh - that suggests about 3,100 for the 24kWh Leaf!
2 The planned deliveries for the Volt and Leaf in 2011
We see that here:
""If (Tesla's battery structure) works, we won't have to wait for a breakthrough in battery technology to develop a relatively cheap electric vehicle," Executive Vice President Takeshi Uchiyamada, who heads Toyota's research and development, told Reuters in an interview at the Detroit auto show on Tuesday.
"It could be as low as one-third of the cost of batteries being developed by car makers, because (laptop) batteries are produced in massive volumes." Source
That 67% cost reduction includes a sophisticated liquid cooling and battery management system, and extensive internal thermal isolation, which should be at least as expensive as the Volt's battery systems, and rather more expensive than those of the much simpler Leaf systems.
The batteries being developed for vehicles should cost less than laptop batteries very soon, because it's much less expensive to manufacture larger batteries than the equivalent in the form of hundreds of tiny laptop batteries. EV volumes will grow to the point of economies of scale very quickly: if an EV like the Leaf uses the equivalent of 3,100 laptop batteries1, it only takes 85,000 EVs2, to equal the volume of about 260,000,000 laptops...
1 the Tesla has 6,813 batteries for about 53kWh - that suggests about 3,100 for the 24kWh Leaf!
2 The planned deliveries for the Volt and Leaf in 2011
December 13, 2010
Why isn't trucking moving faster to electric vehicles?
Companies with large local delivery operations, like Staples, UPS and others, are moving to electric trucks, but they're doing so very slowly, despite clear savings:
"The trucks, which have a top speed of about 50 mph and can carry 16,000 pounds, cost about $30,000 more than a diesel, but Staples expects to recover that expense in 3.3 years because of the savings inherent in the electric models, Mr. Payette said.
Staples said the annual maintenance cost of a diesel delivery truck is about $2,700 in most years, including oil, transmission fluid, filters and belts. For an electric truck—which has no transmission and needs no fluids, filters or belts—the cost is about $250."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704584804575644773552573304.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
On the other hand, the volumes are very small:
"FedEx is using 19 all-electric vehicles in London, Paris and Los Angeles made by Modec of Great Britain and Navistar International Corp. FedEx Chief Executive Officer Fred Smith has been outspoken about his desire to see electric vehicles proliferate, in part to cut the U.S. dependence on imported oil."
Why so slowly?
One problem: achieving economies of scale. The manufacturer received a grant to help get past that hurdle:
"Bryan Hansel, Smith's CEO, said his company is on track to lower its costs enough to not raise prices after its federal grant is used up. "We don't think there is a need for ongoing support," Mr. Hansel said. "
In comparable production volumes, electric vehicles are much cheaper than ICE vehicles, both to manufacture (without the battery) and to maintain. The cost of the battery will be more than paid for with fuel savings, leaving the other savings as profit.
Note the short-term orientation, which makes any kind of innovation difficult:
"One impediment to wider adoption of electric trucks: few finance companies offer leases on them. That's because finance companies are unsure about how to value the lease "residual," a truck's worth after a few years of use. "
The leasing companies are risk-averse. The larger problem: the operating companies are risk-averse, which is why they're leasing in the first place:
"Many large companies, including Staples, prefer to lease trucks to avoid the large capital requirements of an outright purchase, Mr. Payette said."
"The trucks, which have a top speed of about 50 mph and can carry 16,000 pounds, cost about $30,000 more than a diesel, but Staples expects to recover that expense in 3.3 years because of the savings inherent in the electric models, Mr. Payette said.
Staples said the annual maintenance cost of a diesel delivery truck is about $2,700 in most years, including oil, transmission fluid, filters and belts. For an electric truck—which has no transmission and needs no fluids, filters or belts—the cost is about $250."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704584804575644773552573304.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
On the other hand, the volumes are very small:
"FedEx is using 19 all-electric vehicles in London, Paris and Los Angeles made by Modec of Great Britain and Navistar International Corp. FedEx Chief Executive Officer Fred Smith has been outspoken about his desire to see electric vehicles proliferate, in part to cut the U.S. dependence on imported oil."
Why so slowly?
One problem: achieving economies of scale. The manufacturer received a grant to help get past that hurdle:
"Bryan Hansel, Smith's CEO, said his company is on track to lower its costs enough to not raise prices after its federal grant is used up. "We don't think there is a need for ongoing support," Mr. Hansel said. "
In comparable production volumes, electric vehicles are much cheaper than ICE vehicles, both to manufacture (without the battery) and to maintain. The cost of the battery will be more than paid for with fuel savings, leaving the other savings as profit.
Note the short-term orientation, which makes any kind of innovation difficult:
"One impediment to wider adoption of electric trucks: few finance companies offer leases on them. That's because finance companies are unsure about how to value the lease "residual," a truck's worth after a few years of use. "
The leasing companies are risk-averse. The larger problem: the operating companies are risk-averse, which is why they're leasing in the first place:
"Many large companies, including Staples, prefer to lease trucks to avoid the large capital requirements of an outright purchase, Mr. Payette said."
October 15, 2010
Are Electric Vehicles cost effective?
Yes. Here's a Leaf price comparison:
First, you have to decide whether you're looking at out of pocket costs, or trying to look at underlying "real" costs. If we look at market prices paid by buyers, we have to include the credit. If we want to look at actual system-wide costs, we have to include external costs like pollution, supply security, etc. For our purposes today, let's look at out of pocket prices.
2nd, you have to decide what vehicle to compare it to. Here's what Wired magazine says:
"A nicely appointed five-door, five-passenger compact—equivalent to, say, a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla. But it’s electric, so it’s fairly torquey—the measly 107-horsepower motor hustles like it’s got double the ponies up to 40 mph. The ride is soft but surprisingly sure-footed thanks to a 600-pound air-cooled battery under the floorboard."
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/09/ff_electriccars/all/1
So, a comparable vehicle would be a Corolla at minimum. Other useful analyses might be: comparison with a Prius, which Consumer Reports tells us is cost competitive with a comparable car; and overall affordability, which might need a comparison with the average US vehicle.
3rd, you have to do your cost calculations.
Now, the average driver drives about 13,000 miles per year in the US. Total Vehicle Miles Traveled is 2,982,532,000 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/tvtpage.cfm and total number of vehicles is 238,314,692 http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_11.html for an average of 12,515 miles per year. The current price is before taxes is $2.29 - with taxes, that's about $2.80 http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_ALLMG_A_EPM0_PTC_CPGAL_A.htm . The Corolla gets about 30 MPG per http://www.toyota.com/corolla/trims-prices.html , so the Corolla costs about $1,168 per year for fuel.
The Leaf should use about .25kWh per mile, and night time power should cost about $.055/kWh ( The average retail rate for power in the US is $.11 (the coasts have more expensive power), and night time rates should be about 50% of that (often it is much lower, occasionally wholesale rates even go negative)), for an annual cost of $172.
Other factors: less maintenance, due to a much simpler drive train and the elimination of many support systems, fluids, belts, etc, etc. An important example: brake costs will be much lower, due to regenerative braking.
Insurance costs? Insurance costs are based on many things, including theft rates, collision rates, repair costs, anti-theft system and owner behavior. A taxi owner I just interviewed told me that a Prius would cost him 40% more than the usual Crown Vic-type workhorse, but that insurance would cost no more. BTW, the extra cost of the Prius is paid for in 10 months by the fuel savings... The Prius might be a guide: anyone seen a good source?
A Corolla, financed over 10 years, would cost $23,991 ($16,850 XLE, 7% interest) + 11,680 gas costs for $35,671.
A Leaf, financed over 10 years, would cost $35,993 ($32,780 minus $7,500 rebate, 7% interest) + 1,720 gas costs for $35,714.
So, a conservative comparison gives out of pocket costs which are almost identical. Other comparisons would look even better: including state rebates (CA-$5K, TN-$2K, GA-$5k?); comparing to a more expensive Corolla; to the average US vehicle; to a Prius; or using real costs (eliminating the rebate and including the external cost of oil).
In countries like Israel or Denmark, the Leaf will be a 1st car, supported by Better Place. OTOH, I don't expect Better Place to have a big impact on the US soon. On the 3rd hand, it's worth noting that: they are trying, in places like San Francisco; many places (e.g., Tennessee!) are installing charging stations on critical paths, and that a relatively small number can make a disproportionate difference; and the Leaf has a clever built-in app that finds efficient routes and charging stations.
First, you have to decide whether you're looking at out of pocket costs, or trying to look at underlying "real" costs. If we look at market prices paid by buyers, we have to include the credit. If we want to look at actual system-wide costs, we have to include external costs like pollution, supply security, etc. For our purposes today, let's look at out of pocket prices.
2nd, you have to decide what vehicle to compare it to. Here's what Wired magazine says:
"A nicely appointed five-door, five-passenger compact—equivalent to, say, a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla. But it’s electric, so it’s fairly torquey—the measly 107-horsepower motor hustles like it’s got double the ponies up to 40 mph. The ride is soft but surprisingly sure-footed thanks to a 600-pound air-cooled battery under the floorboard."
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/09/ff_electriccars/all/1
So, a comparable vehicle would be a Corolla at minimum. Other useful analyses might be: comparison with a Prius, which Consumer Reports tells us is cost competitive with a comparable car; and overall affordability, which might need a comparison with the average US vehicle.
3rd, you have to do your cost calculations.
Now, the average driver drives about 13,000 miles per year in the US. Total Vehicle Miles Traveled is 2,982,532,000 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/tvtw/tvtpage.cfm and total number of vehicles is 238,314,692 http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_11.html for an average of 12,515 miles per year. The current price is before taxes is $2.29 - with taxes, that's about $2.80 http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PRI_ALLMG_A_EPM0_PTC_CPGAL_A.htm . The Corolla gets about 30 MPG per http://www.toyota.com/corolla/trims-prices.html , so the Corolla costs about $1,168 per year for fuel.
The Leaf should use about .25kWh per mile, and night time power should cost about $.055/kWh ( The average retail rate for power in the US is $.11 (the coasts have more expensive power), and night time rates should be about 50% of that (often it is much lower, occasionally wholesale rates even go negative)), for an annual cost of $172.
Other factors: less maintenance, due to a much simpler drive train and the elimination of many support systems, fluids, belts, etc, etc. An important example: brake costs will be much lower, due to regenerative braking.
Insurance costs? Insurance costs are based on many things, including theft rates, collision rates, repair costs, anti-theft system and owner behavior. A taxi owner I just interviewed told me that a Prius would cost him 40% more than the usual Crown Vic-type workhorse, but that insurance would cost no more. BTW, the extra cost of the Prius is paid for in 10 months by the fuel savings... The Prius might be a guide: anyone seen a good source?
A Corolla, financed over 10 years, would cost $23,991 ($16,850 XLE, 7% interest) + 11,680 gas costs for $35,671.
A Leaf, financed over 10 years, would cost $35,993 ($32,780 minus $7,500 rebate, 7% interest) + 1,720 gas costs for $35,714.
So, a conservative comparison gives out of pocket costs which are almost identical. Other comparisons would look even better: including state rebates (CA-$5K, TN-$2K, GA-$5k?); comparing to a more expensive Corolla; to the average US vehicle; to a Prius; or using real costs (eliminating the rebate and including the external cost of oil).
In countries like Israel or Denmark, the Leaf will be a 1st car, supported by Better Place. OTOH, I don't expect Better Place to have a big impact on the US soon. On the 3rd hand, it's worth noting that: they are trying, in places like San Francisco; many places (e.g., Tennessee!) are installing charging stations on critical paths, and that a relatively small number can make a disproportionate difference; and the Leaf has a clever built-in app that finds efficient routes and charging stations.
June 13, 2010
How quickly will we move to electric vehicles?
As you probably know, I think we should find replacements for oil ASAP. In particular, we should move to electric vehicles. Lately we've seen solid progress towards EVs, in the form of the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt. OTOH, GM plans to ramp up the Volt slowly to not get ahead of demand, and other car manufacturers are moving more slowly.
So - why aren't we moving more quickly to EVs?
I think there are a few things going on:
Oil's price has been higher than the price for substitute fuels for most of the last 40 years, but the margin has varied enormously, and it has only been clearly very high just in the last several years;
Industrial/commercial users are more price sensitive than residential/personal users;
Substitution takes a while ("capex lag");
Transportation is harder to replace than stationary uses, due to the secondary cost of energy storage (mostly in the form of batteries);
EVs are competitive with $80 oil, and far cheaper when you include external costs (security, "conventional" pollution, CO2, etc, etc) , but external costs are only internalized for a small minority of consumers, who are willing to recognize and factor in those costs even without subsidies, credits, fuel/carbon taxes, etc. External costs are extremely important: If those things weren't a problem, we wouldn't be worrying about HEV/PHEV/EREV/EVs. Heck, web sites like The Oil Drum etc wouldn't exist;
OPEC knows they face dangers from substitutes, and will keep prices in their current range as long as they possibly can. Effective fuel prices will stay moderate unless there is another price breakout, or governments rustle up the courage to internalize costs; and
A substitute needs to be much better than the status quo (rather than just competitive) to replace it quickly;
So.....the transition to EV/PHEV/EREVs will be kind've slow for a while.
Won't another wave of high gas prices cause a recession, that will prevent people from buying EVs?
EREVs are here now. Suggesting that high gas prices will cause recession, and that no one will notice and do anything about it, seems highly unrealistic to me. You may object that's already happened, and I'd reply that's only partially true. OTOH, the part that is true is why we're seeing a CAFE that's rising sharply; the Volt and Leaf vehicles; and an EV credit of $7,500.
If we were to see another oil price shock, I think we could expect to see the transition from ICE to EV accelerate very considerably.
Keep in mind that one of the major causes of oil-shock induced recessions is consumer uncertainty, as they delay their purchase, and wait to decide whether to buy something with better mileage. Well, I think another oil shock will push people off the fence: they'll start buying EREVs and EVs, and they'll have a much better reason to replace their old vehicles than they've had for a very long time.
So - why aren't we moving more quickly to EVs?
I think there are a few things going on:
Oil's price has been higher than the price for substitute fuels for most of the last 40 years, but the margin has varied enormously, and it has only been clearly very high just in the last several years;
Industrial/commercial users are more price sensitive than residential/personal users;
Substitution takes a while ("capex lag");
Transportation is harder to replace than stationary uses, due to the secondary cost of energy storage (mostly in the form of batteries);
EVs are competitive with $80 oil, and far cheaper when you include external costs (security, "conventional" pollution, CO2, etc, etc) , but external costs are only internalized for a small minority of consumers, who are willing to recognize and factor in those costs even without subsidies, credits, fuel/carbon taxes, etc. External costs are extremely important: If those things weren't a problem, we wouldn't be worrying about HEV/PHEV/EREV/EVs. Heck, web sites like The Oil Drum etc wouldn't exist;
OPEC knows they face dangers from substitutes, and will keep prices in their current range as long as they possibly can. Effective fuel prices will stay moderate unless there is another price breakout, or governments rustle up the courage to internalize costs; and
A substitute needs to be much better than the status quo (rather than just competitive) to replace it quickly;
So.....the transition to EV/PHEV/EREVs will be kind've slow for a while.
Won't another wave of high gas prices cause a recession, that will prevent people from buying EVs?
EREVs are here now. Suggesting that high gas prices will cause recession, and that no one will notice and do anything about it, seems highly unrealistic to me. You may object that's already happened, and I'd reply that's only partially true. OTOH, the part that is true is why we're seeing a CAFE that's rising sharply; the Volt and Leaf vehicles; and an EV credit of $7,500.
If we were to see another oil price shock, I think we could expect to see the transition from ICE to EV accelerate very considerably.
Keep in mind that one of the major causes of oil-shock induced recessions is consumer uncertainty, as they delay their purchase, and wait to decide whether to buy something with better mileage. Well, I think another oil shock will push people off the fence: they'll start buying EREVs and EVs, and they'll have a much better reason to replace their old vehicles than they've had for a very long time.
November 11, 2009
Have EVs and plug-in hybrids reached the tipping point?
I'd say so.
Look at the Volt, around which GM is centering it's future. Look at the dozens of vehicles coming in the next 3 years, like the Nissan Leaf http://energyfaq.blogspot.com/2009/08/how-good-is-new-ev-leaf.html . Look at the explosion of development around them:
"...here is where the dots connect and the news turns good. For the technical challenge of greening electric cars means entering a commercial landscape that mirrors the transformative industries of the 1980s and '90s: computers and software, switching and networking, consumer electronics converging with cellular technology. This landscape is full of start-ups and medium-size supplier businesses that play to American strengths: entrepreneurship, originality, comfort with the virtual. We ought to stop thinking about the auto industry as a handful of great manufacturing companies superintending large, dependent suppliers -- or, for that matter, cars as standalone objects. Rather, the electric car will be a kind of ultimate mobile device, produced in expanding networks for expanding networks; a piece of hardware manufactured by a burgeoning supplier grid and nested in an information grid interlacing the electrical grid. Building out these three networks will be more profitable, and a greater engine of economic growth, than building the cars themselves."
See: http://www.inc.com/magazine/20091101/the-connected-car.html
Look at the Volt, around which GM is centering it's future. Look at the dozens of vehicles coming in the next 3 years, like the Nissan Leaf http://energyfaq.blogspot.com/2009/08/how-good-is-new-ev-leaf.html . Look at the explosion of development around them:
"...here is where the dots connect and the news turns good. For the technical challenge of greening electric cars means entering a commercial landscape that mirrors the transformative industries of the 1980s and '90s: computers and software, switching and networking, consumer electronics converging with cellular technology. This landscape is full of start-ups and medium-size supplier businesses that play to American strengths: entrepreneurship, originality, comfort with the virtual. We ought to stop thinking about the auto industry as a handful of great manufacturing companies superintending large, dependent suppliers -- or, for that matter, cars as standalone objects. Rather, the electric car will be a kind of ultimate mobile device, produced in expanding networks for expanding networks; a piece of hardware manufactured by a burgeoning supplier grid and nested in an information grid interlacing the electrical grid. Building out these three networks will be more profitable, and a greater engine of economic growth, than building the cars themselves."
See: http://www.inc.com/magazine/20091101/the-connected-car.html
October 25, 2009
Volt battery costs, part 6
How likely are large reductions in lithium-ion battery costs?
Highly likely, according to their manufacturers.
"During a panel discussion at a plug-in vehicle conference in Detroit, several speakers said dramatic cost cuts are possible once the advanced batteries reach high-volume production...
Johnson Controls-Saft Advanced Battery Systems aims to reduce the cost of a lithium-ion battery pack by 50 per cent, said Michael Andrew, the venture's director of government affairs and external communications for hybrid electric battery systems....
Ric Fulop, vice-president of business development for A123 Systems Inc, said he believes the cost of battery packs could come down 9 per cent per year as the industry matures....
Ramanathan...said initial costs may be too high because car manufacturers are over-engineering cars and battery packs to ensure there are no mechanical glitches that could sour consumers on the technology."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10605008&pnum=0
Highly likely, according to their manufacturers.
"During a panel discussion at a plug-in vehicle conference in Detroit, several speakers said dramatic cost cuts are possible once the advanced batteries reach high-volume production...
Johnson Controls-Saft Advanced Battery Systems aims to reduce the cost of a lithium-ion battery pack by 50 per cent, said Michael Andrew, the venture's director of government affairs and external communications for hybrid electric battery systems....
Ric Fulop, vice-president of business development for A123 Systems Inc, said he believes the cost of battery packs could come down 9 per cent per year as the industry matures....
Ramanathan...said initial costs may be too high because car manufacturers are over-engineering cars and battery packs to ensure there are no mechanical glitches that could sour consumers on the technology."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10605008&pnum=0
September 11, 2009
Volt battery costs, part 5
Are li-ion battery costs really dropping?
Yes. here are some retail costs: http://www.evcomponents.com/SearchResults.asp?Cat=34
We see that current Lithium cells are about $350/kWh for individual purchases. We can expect that an OEM can get them for around 50% of that (no more than $200/kWh), which places GM's wholesale cost for the Volt pack in the neighborhood of $3,200.
The range in the Volt is electronically limited in order to avoid any warranty issues with pack replacement (due to California Air Resources Board requirements). Essentially, GM's only letting the pack discharge to about half, so when capacity drops with age/cycling, as it does with all batteries, they can get more mileage out of it compared to going with a smaller pack and having the range drop below 40 miles within twenty+ thousand miles.
Going by specs for the retail batteries above, 5000 cycles before they hit 70% capacity would be at least .7(40 miles)5000 = ~140,000 miles until the pack capacity degrades to 70%, and probably ~200,000 miles before it degrades to 50% and drivers can't go a full 40 miles on all electric power w/ something like the Volt.
GM had to, in effect, de-rate their battery pack because the California Air Resources Board requirements for PHEVs are very stringent. Pure EVs don't have these requirements, so manufacturers can get away with using the whole pack.
Yes. here are some retail costs: http://www.evcomponents.com/SearchResults.asp?Cat=34
We see that current Lithium cells are about $350/kWh for individual purchases. We can expect that an OEM can get them for around 50% of that (no more than $200/kWh), which places GM's wholesale cost for the Volt pack in the neighborhood of $3,200.
The range in the Volt is electronically limited in order to avoid any warranty issues with pack replacement (due to California Air Resources Board requirements). Essentially, GM's only letting the pack discharge to about half, so when capacity drops with age/cycling, as it does with all batteries, they can get more mileage out of it compared to going with a smaller pack and having the range drop below 40 miles within twenty+ thousand miles.
Going by specs for the retail batteries above, 5000 cycles before they hit 70% capacity would be at least .7(40 miles)5000 = ~140,000 miles until the pack capacity degrades to 70%, and probably ~200,000 miles before it degrades to 50% and drivers can't go a full 40 miles on all electric power w/ something like the Volt.
GM had to, in effect, de-rate their battery pack because the California Air Resources Board requirements for PHEVs are very stringent. Pure EVs don't have these requirements, so manufacturers can get away with using the whole pack.
August 28, 2009
Could race cars go electric?
From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_NASCAR
"According to NASCAR, about 6,000 U.S. gallons (~22,700 litres) of fuel are consumed during a typical Sprint Cup weekend.[9] For the 2006 season, which includes 36 points races, the total for the season would be 216,000 U.S. gallons (818,000 litres). One environmental critic recently estimated NASCAR's total fuel consumption across all series at 2 million U.S. gallons (7.57 million liters) of gas for one season;[10] however, the methodology used has been a point of dispute."
Electric motors have better torque, so how long before they go electric?
Pretty soon!
Here's a nice description of that electric torque, vs a Porsche:
"Zero-to-60 mph acceleration is less than 4 seconds, which is Ferrari quick. Around a tight, technical racetrack, the Tesla will beat the pants off your garden-variety supercar." LA Times
The Chevy Corvette, with a monster 6.2 liter, eight cylinder, 430 horsepower engine takes 4.6 seconds. The Tesla accelerates faster than the Porsche 911. Faster than the Ferrari Spider....I can say with certainty, now, that if anyone doubts whether all-electric cars can compete: they can. Scientific American
"The all-electric sports car is faster than Porsche 911 or Audi R8 yet is six times as efficient as conventional sports cars." Tesla achieved overall corporate profitability in July, thanks to strong demand for the Roadster. http://green.autoblog.com/2009/10/27/tesla-roadster-runs-313-miles-on-a-charge-in-global-green-challe/
Here's a 0-60 in 3.5 seconds electric Ford Pinto dragster! allcarselectric.com
and opb.org
Here's a discussion of low-CO2 Formula One: http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/motor-racing/formula-zero-carbon-motor-racing-without-the-emissions-1775819.html
Here's a good discussion of EV racing.
**Edit
See http://www.nedra.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_NASCAR
"According to NASCAR, about 6,000 U.S. gallons (~22,700 litres) of fuel are consumed during a typical Sprint Cup weekend.[9] For the 2006 season, which includes 36 points races, the total for the season would be 216,000 U.S. gallons (818,000 litres). One environmental critic recently estimated NASCAR's total fuel consumption across all series at 2 million U.S. gallons (7.57 million liters) of gas for one season;[10] however, the methodology used has been a point of dispute."
Electric motors have better torque, so how long before they go electric?
Pretty soon!
Here's a nice description of that electric torque, vs a Porsche:
"Zero-to-60 mph acceleration is less than 4 seconds, which is Ferrari quick. Around a tight, technical racetrack, the Tesla will beat the pants off your garden-variety supercar." LA Times
The Chevy Corvette, with a monster 6.2 liter, eight cylinder, 430 horsepower engine takes 4.6 seconds. The Tesla accelerates faster than the Porsche 911. Faster than the Ferrari Spider....I can say with certainty, now, that if anyone doubts whether all-electric cars can compete: they can. Scientific American
"The all-electric sports car is faster than Porsche 911 or Audi R8 yet is six times as efficient as conventional sports cars." Tesla achieved overall corporate profitability in July, thanks to strong demand for the Roadster. http://green.autoblog.com/2009/10/27/tesla-roadster-runs-313-miles-on-a-charge-in-global-green-challe/
Here's a 0-60 in 3.5 seconds electric Ford Pinto dragster! allcarselectric.com
and opb.org
Here's a discussion of low-CO2 Formula One: http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/motor-racing/formula-zero-carbon-motor-racing-without-the-emissions-1775819.html
Here's a good discussion of EV racing.
**Edit
See http://www.nedra.com/
August 27, 2009
How quickly can Plug-in hybrids grow?
I was struck by a recent EPRI Projection of 100M PHEVs by 2030. EPRI is the technical arm of the electrical utility industry - clearly they take PHEVs seriously.
Some people wonder if GM is serious about the Volt, and whether it can increase production quickly. Here's a hint: GM is building a dedicated battery assembly plant, with a capacity of about 100,000 battery packs per year, to be finished in time for the planned unveiling in November of 2010.
But won't most people wait until a recession, or some crisis, before they do something like buying an electric vehicle?
I think that the most important way to prepare for Peak Oil is electric transportation. This includes hybrids and plug-in hybrids (including Extended Range EVs like the Chevy Volt and Plug-in Hybrid EVs like a plug-in Prius) of various sorts.
It looks to me like the US and China are doing moderately well in ramping up hybrids and EREVs and PHEVs: the Chevy Volt will be ready for large production volumes in 2011, and a wide range of PHEVs and EVs is coming in the next several years, from almost all of the major car makers. Also, I think enough early-adopters are out there to allow these vehicles to ramp up to pretty large production volumes, putting them only a few years away from being the primary mode. So, I think that when mainstream buyers are ready, the electric vehicles will pretty much be there.
What about an emergency?
Production can be increased very quickly in an emergency. The Classic Example is World War II airplane production, which grew in 4.5 years from 6,000 per year to 9,000 per month! http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/world-war-2.htm
Some people wonder if GM is serious about the Volt, and whether it can increase production quickly. Here's a hint: GM is building a dedicated battery assembly plant, with a capacity of about 100,000 battery packs per year, to be finished in time for the planned unveiling in November of 2010.
But won't most people wait until a recession, or some crisis, before they do something like buying an electric vehicle?
I think that the most important way to prepare for Peak Oil is electric transportation. This includes hybrids and plug-in hybrids (including Extended Range EVs like the Chevy Volt and Plug-in Hybrid EVs like a plug-in Prius) of various sorts.
It looks to me like the US and China are doing moderately well in ramping up hybrids and EREVs and PHEVs: the Chevy Volt will be ready for large production volumes in 2011, and a wide range of PHEVs and EVs is coming in the next several years, from almost all of the major car makers. Also, I think enough early-adopters are out there to allow these vehicles to ramp up to pretty large production volumes, putting them only a few years away from being the primary mode. So, I think that when mainstream buyers are ready, the electric vehicles will pretty much be there.
What about an emergency?
Production can be increased very quickly in an emergency. The Classic Example is World War II airplane production, which grew in 4.5 years from 6,000 per year to 9,000 per month! http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/world-war-2.htm
August 13, 2009
Can a plug-in hybrid compete on price?
Sure.
But aren't vehicles like the Volt expected to sell for $40,000 due to a very expensive battery?
Well, first, we should be clear that most of that $40K is not due to the battery.
First, a simple EV, without a battery, should sell for less than a comparable Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle. Electric motors don't cost any more than ICEs, and EV powertrains are simpler than ICE powertrains (no transmission, muffler, catalytic converter, fuel pump, air filter, oil filter, etc, etc). There are basic sedans out there priced for $15K, so a basic EV should be less than $15K.
Second, GM says the ICE backup on the Volt costs about $2k, and their battery supplier says the battery cells cost right now about $5,600 ($350 per KWH x 16 KWH). There is another $2,400 for the power electronics and battery management system - that's a cost that will mostly go away with very large volume production - so let's allocate 500 for that. 25% markup of those additional pieces ($8,100 x %25) would add about $10,250.
So, the basic pricing should be around $25,000. The rest of the Volt 1st-gen pricing is due to R&D, low-volumes and upper-market options.
You've said battery prices will drop. How do we know?
Here's a good discussion for this (and a lot of other Volt battery information):
"From a historical perspective over the past 17-18 years the cost has come down by a factor of 15x. In the next 5-10 years we should be able to come down by an incremental 2-4x and we will have to do that to accelerate the penetration of the technology."
From http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/02/profile-li-ion.html
But aren't vehicles like the Volt expected to sell for $40,000 due to a very expensive battery?
Well, first, we should be clear that most of that $40K is not due to the battery.
First, a simple EV, without a battery, should sell for less than a comparable Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle. Electric motors don't cost any more than ICEs, and EV powertrains are simpler than ICE powertrains (no transmission, muffler, catalytic converter, fuel pump, air filter, oil filter, etc, etc). There are basic sedans out there priced for $15K, so a basic EV should be less than $15K.
Second, GM says the ICE backup on the Volt costs about $2k, and their battery supplier says the battery cells cost right now about $5,600 ($350 per KWH x 16 KWH). There is another $2,400 for the power electronics and battery management system - that's a cost that will mostly go away with very large volume production - so let's allocate 500 for that. 25% markup of those additional pieces ($8,100 x %25) would add about $10,250.
So, the basic pricing should be around $25,000. The rest of the Volt 1st-gen pricing is due to R&D, low-volumes and upper-market options.
You've said battery prices will drop. How do we know?
Here's a good discussion for this (and a lot of other Volt battery information):
"From a historical perspective over the past 17-18 years the cost has come down by a factor of 15x. In the next 5-10 years we should be able to come down by an incremental 2-4x and we will have to do that to accelerate the penetration of the technology."
From http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/02/profile-li-ion.html
August 7, 2009
Volt battery costs, part 4
A recent study from the University of Michigan suggested that it will take a very long time for PHEVs to gain a significant share of the car market.
"Annual sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the US could reach 2% – 3% with fleet penetration of around 1% by 2015, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI). By 2020, sales could reach around 4% – 5% with fleet penetration a little more than 2%. And in 30 years, they could be around 20% of sales with a fleet penetration of about 16%. " And...these are the high-end estimates!
So, is this correct?
Fortunately, no. The study makes several very, very odd assumptions. First, it assumes that current gasoline prices are $2 per gallon, and that they will never rise above $4 in the next 30 years.
Second, they assume that a PHEV-40 (a plug-in hybrid with a 40 mile electric range) would cost $50,000 both now, and 30 years from now.
Given these assumptions, a PHEV could never pay for itself with gasoline savings. Fortunately, PHEV-40s are likely to be priced below $30,000 in 5 years (and certainly in less than 10), and will pay for themselves quite nicely.
"Annual sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the US could reach 2% – 3% with fleet penetration of around 1% by 2015, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI). By 2020, sales could reach around 4% – 5% with fleet penetration a little more than 2%. And in 30 years, they could be around 20% of sales with a fleet penetration of about 16%. " And...these are the high-end estimates!
So, is this correct?
Fortunately, no. The study makes several very, very odd assumptions. First, it assumes that current gasoline prices are $2 per gallon, and that they will never rise above $4 in the next 30 years.
Second, they assume that a PHEV-40 (a plug-in hybrid with a 40 mile electric range) would cost $50,000 both now, and 30 years from now.
Given these assumptions, a PHEV could never pay for itself with gasoline savings. Fortunately, PHEV-40s are likely to be priced below $30,000 in 5 years (and certainly in less than 10), and will pay for themselves quite nicely.
July 27, 2009
More Volt Questions...
Are we sure consumers want this?
I don't think there's much uncertainty about consumer response. GM only decided to make the Volt because there was enormous response to the concept vehicle. EVs have been around for 100 years, and its been very clear that battery problems (cost, life, charging time, range limits, etc) have been their primary problems. They have great performance, low maintenance, low "fuel" costs, are quiet, etc, etc. Now that those problems are adequately solved with the PHEV design, new-gen li-ion, and higher gas prices, the market is wide open for PHEVs.
In an age of Peak Oil-related high fuel prices, ruinous oil-related trade deficits, oil wars, and potentially disastrous climate change (which is pretty likely to start to be priced in to market prices), isn't it nice to know that there's a cost-effective alternative, with no performance compromises, that uses only 10% as much fuel as the average US car?
Wouldn't charging at work be expensive for employer?
less than 10% of Volt owners are likely to want at-work charging (only 22% of all commuters are going to need it at all, and many of those are only going to need it for 5 or 10 miles on the way home). That's not going a large-volume problem for a little while.
As I noted before, it's likely that PHEV/EV charging will get a discount at whatever time it happens, as it's enormously useful for load following and frequency regulation (if the utility sees a spike in demand, or loses a generator, it can cut off the PHEV/EV charging in milliseconds).
If employers provided free charging, wouldn't that delay the rollout of public charging by companies like Better Place?
I think it's pretty clear that in the US the primary market niche will be for PHEVs, not EVs. Unlike gasoline, 90% of drivers have an outlet available at home, so public charging is much less important; and distances are much greater in the US. I wish Tesla, Nissan and Better Place very good luck (they'll have their market niche), but PHEVs will dominate for quite a while. And...that's just fine.
The perfect is the enemy of the good.
Why do you talk about these cars as though they were already in mass production, when they remain essentially prototypes today?
Are you concerned that the Volt might go the way of the EV-1? I think you're worrying too much. The Volt has none of the performance problems of the EV-1; PHEV/EVs are strongly supported by public policy, as shown by what the current administration says and by the planned CAFE regs; and, GM has made it pretty clear that the Volt is absolutely central to it's corporate strategy.
Electricity isn't free in either an economic or energy sense.
We don't have any real possibility of a shortage of electricity in this country; all of our electricity is domestically produced, so there's no trade deficit or security of supply problems; and PHEV/EVs supports the expansion of wind power by providing night time demand and mitigating intermittency.
Won't expensive, fossil fuel powered natural gas turbines be the primary power source for PHEVs/EVs?
No, when PHEV/EVs start to scale up, wind power is the natural source. Charging will be at night, when there's excess wind power, and charging can be dynamically matched to wind output. Smart meters will move charging to the points in time with the lowest marginal rates, which means wind and nuclear.
I don't think there's much uncertainty about consumer response. GM only decided to make the Volt because there was enormous response to the concept vehicle. EVs have been around for 100 years, and its been very clear that battery problems (cost, life, charging time, range limits, etc) have been their primary problems. They have great performance, low maintenance, low "fuel" costs, are quiet, etc, etc. Now that those problems are adequately solved with the PHEV design, new-gen li-ion, and higher gas prices, the market is wide open for PHEVs.
In an age of Peak Oil-related high fuel prices, ruinous oil-related trade deficits, oil wars, and potentially disastrous climate change (which is pretty likely to start to be priced in to market prices), isn't it nice to know that there's a cost-effective alternative, with no performance compromises, that uses only 10% as much fuel as the average US car?
Wouldn't charging at work be expensive for employer?
less than 10% of Volt owners are likely to want at-work charging (only 22% of all commuters are going to need it at all, and many of those are only going to need it for 5 or 10 miles on the way home). That's not going a large-volume problem for a little while.
As I noted before, it's likely that PHEV/EV charging will get a discount at whatever time it happens, as it's enormously useful for load following and frequency regulation (if the utility sees a spike in demand, or loses a generator, it can cut off the PHEV/EV charging in milliseconds).
If employers provided free charging, wouldn't that delay the rollout of public charging by companies like Better Place?
I think it's pretty clear that in the US the primary market niche will be for PHEVs, not EVs. Unlike gasoline, 90% of drivers have an outlet available at home, so public charging is much less important; and distances are much greater in the US. I wish Tesla, Nissan and Better Place very good luck (they'll have their market niche), but PHEVs will dominate for quite a while. And...that's just fine.
The perfect is the enemy of the good.
Why do you talk about these cars as though they were already in mass production, when they remain essentially prototypes today?
Are you concerned that the Volt might go the way of the EV-1? I think you're worrying too much. The Volt has none of the performance problems of the EV-1; PHEV/EVs are strongly supported by public policy, as shown by what the current administration says and by the planned CAFE regs; and, GM has made it pretty clear that the Volt is absolutely central to it's corporate strategy.
Electricity isn't free in either an economic or energy sense.
We don't have any real possibility of a shortage of electricity in this country; all of our electricity is domestically produced, so there's no trade deficit or security of supply problems; and PHEV/EVs supports the expansion of wind power by providing night time demand and mitigating intermittency.
Won't expensive, fossil fuel powered natural gas turbines be the primary power source for PHEVs/EVs?
No, when PHEV/EVs start to scale up, wind power is the natural source. Charging will be at night, when there's excess wind power, and charging can be dynamically matched to wind output. Smart meters will move charging to the points in time with the lowest marginal rates, which means wind and nuclear.
July 26, 2009
How much electricity does the Volt use?
We don't have all of the information we might like. On the one hand, the 1st-generation Volt gets at least 40 all-electric miles on both the EPA city and highway cycles, and does it using an effective battery capacity of 8 KWHs (50% of the nominal 16 KWHs). That gives us .2 KWH/mile, battery to wheel.
Efficiency is likely to improve with later generations - especially aerodynamics (the most important factor with an electric drivetrain, where regenerative braking greatly reduces acceleration/braking losses), but also peripheral loads. The importance of aerodynamics can be seen with the ultra-streamlined Aptera, which is expected to use only .07 KWH per mile.
On the other hand, that doesn't include the charge-discharge losses, which are usually 7-10% for li-ion, or AC-DC conversion losses, which can range from 1% to 75% (for small, cheap "wall-warts"). And, those efficiency improvements could easily go to larger vehicle size (though not to acceleration: one of the nice things about electric motors is that they get more efficient as they get larger, unlike infernal combustion engines).
You could use .25KWH/mile, if you wanted to be conservative.
Efficiency is likely to improve with later generations - especially aerodynamics (the most important factor with an electric drivetrain, where regenerative braking greatly reduces acceleration/braking losses), but also peripheral loads. The importance of aerodynamics can be seen with the ultra-streamlined Aptera, which is expected to use only .07 KWH per mile.
On the other hand, that doesn't include the charge-discharge losses, which are usually 7-10% for li-ion, or AC-DC conversion losses, which can range from 1% to 75% (for small, cheap "wall-warts"). And, those efficiency improvements could easily go to larger vehicle size (though not to acceleration: one of the nice things about electric motors is that they get more efficient as they get larger, unlike infernal combustion engines).
You could use .25KWH/mile, if you wanted to be conservative.
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